For the majority of the country, last year’s Brexit vote was seen as a complete disaster, but if what Professor Mark Blyth is predicting turns out to be true, then it could be a blessing in disguise.
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Blyth is a lecturer in political economy at Brown University in the US and he correctly predicted both the Brexit and Trump votes last year, as well as the result of the Italian referendum, which many other so called ‘political’ experts failed to forecast. As such, it gives his latest bold prediction – that the European Union will completely meltdown in 2017 – a little more credibility:
For all this… about Brexit and whether Britain should have left, it might be the case the EU ceases to exist before Article 50 is invoked.
You have an election coming up in France. It’s entirely plausible the National Front will win the first round.
At that point everyone in France is meant to organise a giant blocking coalition to stop them being elected.
That would mean everyone on the French left would have to vote for someone who basically wants to bring Thatcher’s economic policy menu to France, and that’s after eight years of stagnations – that’s going to be a very hard sell.
Apparently the turmoil in France could then lead to even more instability within the EU and it’s eventual collapse. In which case, it might be a good thing that we got out early.
Of course, there’s no real way to predict these political events, but the fact that Blyth is three for three on his predictions means he might not be far off with this one. Let’s hope 2017 isn’t as tumultuous as 2016 though eh?
For more on Brexit never actually happening, check out this theory that says it won’t because it’s way too complicated. Who knows?